A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
